Preface

In today’s changing global order, the growing weight of geopolitical rivalries is falling most heavily on small states. In South Asia, the competition between China and India, layered with the shifting priorities of the United States and others, has reshaped the policy space available to countries like Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh. For these states, strategic alignment is no longer a question of loyalty or ideology, but of survival and statecraft.

This volume explores how small states in South Asia are responding to intensified regional and global power rivalries. At its core lies a deceptively simple question: how do small states exercise agency in an environment increasingly defined by asymmetry?

Authors set out to answer this question by going beyond the well-trodden international relations theories of balancing, bandwagoning, and hedging. Instead, they examined the messier reality of how domestic political economy, elite incentives, and institutional fragility shape foreign policy decisions. Through in-depth case studies, the research shows that small states rarely behave predictably, and even less often in line with theoretical expectations. What emerges instead is a dynamic picture of opportunism, constraint, and strategic improvisation.

This work draws on the contributions of local experts from each country who brought deep contextual insight to their analyses. They have examined how infrastructure investments, development finance, and diplomatic postures become instruments of engagement and leverage for small states navigating large power interests. From the Trincomalee oil farm in Sri Lanka to Nepal’s China transit agreement to Bangladesh’s handling of the Rohingya crisis, these case studies reveal how small states both shape and are shaped by the geopolitical currents around them.

The synthesis paper that anchors this volume introduces a framework for interpreting these behaviors, rooted in political economy analysis and grounded in the day-to-day realities of policymaking in complex, often volatile, contexts. Rather than prescribing a single strategy or ideal type, the analysis maps the choices, tradeoffs, and consequences small states face as they maneuver between giants.

This project has also been an exercise in collaborative inquiry among experts, reflecting a commitment to locally led research, regional knowledge sharing, and evidence-based policy engagement. Sincere thanks to the country experts who authored the case studies and to Sagar Prasai and Mandakini Surie, whose leadership and analysis shaped the synthesis and conceptual framing of this volume.

While this publication includes case studies from Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, the broader research also drew on insights from Bhutan and the Maldives. Although those country papers are not published here due to contextual sensitivities, they were critical in developing the analytical framework and deepening our understanding of the diverse strategies employed by small South Asian states.