The Context and Importance of the Problem

The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the prevailing global trend toward a more polarized and fragmented world. It may signify a ‘new normal’ and herald the beginning of a new world order, or perhaps the status quo will ultimately remain the same. However, only nine pharmaceutical companies have full control over COVID-19 vaccine production, giving just a few countries a monopoly. Some studies have predicted that two centuries of Western domination will end soon. But will Western values retreat with it? Will Eastern values fill the void? Which values are better? Like many other sectors of public and private life, diplomacy has been disrupted by the pandemic. As the coronavirus has spread all over the globe, the sense of strategic helplessness has been devastating. Conflicts continue unabated. Since the outbreak of the pandemic, there have been expectations that a major diplomatic breakthrough will take place. But if one development sticks out from this whole period, it has been the exacerbation of the US-China conflict. There has been a global strategic realignment that appears to stretch in the near future. On one side are the US, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, India, Japan, probably Australia, and the countries of Southeast Asia, on the other, China, Pakistan, North Korea, and perhaps Turkey, Iran, and Russia. These countries are actively shaping counter-alliances and narratives via China’s highly ambitious Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) vs. the US-Japan led Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP), the BIG-B initiative, Quad alliance, and Asia-Pacific Strategy and have started decoupling their economies. It seems that a new ‘Cold War’ is emerging. The tensions on the Korean Peninsula, in South Asia, along the Sino-Indian border, and in the East and South China Seas show that regional powers are equally crucial in shaping the new geopolitics of Asia and the new world order. Unlike Asia, Europe is likely to be caught for decades in a competition for political dominance and military power while multipolar order, connectivity, supply chains, resources, artificial intelligence, and technological supremacy would dominate the age of digital capitalism. Europe, which dominated the global order less than a century ago, is now in danger of cuƫng itself off from the contemporary quest for international order by identifying its domestic plan with its ultimate geopolitical direction. Though the whole EU is not responsible for it, Brexit is one of the worst examples of this. In fact, we are seeing not just a shiŌ to a more multipolar world, but also the emergence of ‘multiple modernities’ which challenge the universality of western values. As South Asia is trying to cope with the dynamics of globalization, China has emerged as a crucial player in world economy. India has always been at the center of Bangladeshi geopolitics, although the USA has always had a bargaining chip. Other territorial powers such as China used to be on the periphery of Bangladeshi strategic thinking. Historically, Bangladesh has had more developmental and societal ties to India. Bangladesh, Pakistan and India together constitute a subcontinent. Nonetheless, India’s hegemonic aƫtude and bullying approach has generated widespread bitterness among ordinary Bangladeshis, especially in comparison to China, which has historically abstained from interfering in Bangladeshi politics while investing extensively in its economy. China hawks, particularly in South Asia, routinely malign Bangladesh for receiving trade and investment from China. These critics overlook the relationship’s limits. These paternalistic stories are steeped in an obsolete perspective on Bangladesh, which takes steps to estrange a country that has become a model for human development and monetary policy. It should be noted that there is a perception among a significant section of Bangladeshis China has also taken an interest in Bangladesh’s domestic politics since the 2018 Bangladeshi election. China has skillfully created a notion in Bangladesh that it is politically disinterested and non-interfering by refraining from remarking about Bangladesh’s internal issues in public. But this Chinese support nonetheless is helping an unelected, undemocratic regime to remain in power. Drawing lessons from pre-COVID geopolitics, this article will suggest strategies that countries like Bangladesh should, and should not, follow to defend sovereignty, democracy, human rights and rule of law. History never repeats, but it rhymes. This article will seek to find those rhymes before it is too late.