Outlook

Bangladesh cannot remain aloof from the changing international environment. The shiŌing geopolitics of the region have increased Bangladesh’s geopolitical value threefold. To start with, Bangladesh is now the as the fourth-largest Muslim country on the planet and the third in the region. The second factor is Bangladesh’s location inside the geostrategic frontier of India, South Asia’s most powerful nation. The third is Bangladesh’s proximity to China, Asia’s greatest power and an adversary of both the US and India. The current climate therefore represents a test of Bangladesh’s national security policy, especially regarding economic advancement, energy security, and military development.The strategic importance of a country depends on both volatile and non-volatile factors. One must recognize and understand how these factors tend to influence a country’s geo-strategic clout or its vulnerability. India would find itself cut off from its northeastern provinces in a border conflict with Bangladesh. The only way to offset the pressure is to have a strategic corridor through Bangladesh. The importance of such a route first became clear to Indian strategists in the 1962 Sino-Indian War. China threatened to cut India’s Lines of Communication to the Seven Sisters, particularly in the NEFA (the Northeast Frontier Agency, since renamed Arunachal Pradesh). Thus, Indian strategists are cognizant of the fact that China is capable of isolating the northeastern provinces from the rest of India.The changed geo-strategic dynamics following the rise of the USA as the lone superpower and the subsequent events in Europe and the Middle East, and the fast changes in global geo-politics have generated a state of fear-psychosis among the existing and emerging middle powers. These powers, apprehensive of the perceived threats to their national interests from state and non-state actors, are either aligning with or moving away from the predominant global powers. The emerging strategic partnerships between Russia and China and between the United States and India seem to be going in opposite directions. However, the ever-increasing pressure of the middle powers necessitated extension of their strategic frontiers. In Asia we are witnessing the strategic rivalry between India and China. India, having defied American influence for five long decades since its independence, moved much closer to the US and established nuclear and military cooperation with Washington, shunning the spirit of the principle of non-alignment. On the other hand, Russia and China, puƫng aside their differences from the 1960s Sino-Soviet Split, have moved closer to each other, and are trying to counter US influence in their respective backyards.Against the backdrop of a redefined strategic frontier and the rising military giant of India, Bangladesh needs to reassess its own geo-strategic priorities, with a focus on its opportunities and challenges. Most of all, Bangladesh needs to bear its vital location on India’s strategic frontier. There is a perception that Bangladesh’s foreign policy has been largely driven by its leaders and their partisan policies, instead of being based on the principles of equality, social justice and human dignity promised in the proclamation of independence.