Regional trade and connectivity are vital challenges that loom large in front of Bangladesh, and the future of the country depends much on how it tackles these issues. Political consensus is imperative to meet these challenges effectively. Along with pragmatic planning, friendly relations are also preconditions for regional connectivity.
These views were expressed by speakers at a seminar on ‘Bangladesh in Regional Trade and Connectivity: A Politico-Economic Assessment’ held in the capital city Dhaka on 19 August 2017 at the Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BIISS). Organised by the Centre for Governance Studies (CGS), the seminar was addressed by politicians, academics, economists, business persons, political analysts and others.
Focussing on various aspects of regional trade and connectivity, the keynote paper at the seminar was presented by researcher M Shahidul Islam. He highlighted the various initiatives being taken up in the region that promoted connectivity not just restricted to the region, but beyond borders to go global. These included the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) being initiated by China, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Japan’s Big-B, (Bay of Bengal Industrial Growth Belt) and others.
While there was a general consensus on the need for connectivity, regional rivalries posed as a hindrance in many instances. The escalating rivalry between China and India were hindering BRI as well as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). India also viewed CPEC with suspicion and animosity.
The keynote paper stated that in recent times trade between Bangladesh and China had stepped in in recent times. While Bangladesh’s trade with India had increased too, this increase was no so rapid, though the trade gap had widened significantly, the balanced tipped in India’s favour. The reasons behind this the slow-down in trade with India were non-tariff barriers, high costs of trade, India’s negative list, no headway in trade and services under SAARC, India’s anti-dumping laws, Bangladesh’s narrow export basket and insignificant foreign direct investment (FDI).
Shahidul Islam said that the potential of BCIM (Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Forum for Regional Cooperation) was stunted due to tensions between China and India. He said that Dhaka had spoken of a Look East policy, but did not put its word to action.
On the other hand, China and Myanmar had progressed far ahead with integrated efforts on their shared borders. The borders between the two countries were economically vibrant. Drug trade, human trafficking and other underhand activities had been replaced with thriving trade and commerce. Bangladesh could study these developments and benefit from the China-Myanmar experience. Bangladesh needed to keep in mind that Myanmar was also going to be a vital conduit for connectivity.
Highlighting the political constraints to Bangladesh taking advantage from regional trade and connectivity, the keynote pointed to Bangladesh-India transit, development of the deep-sea port in Chittagong, wider connectivity linking Bangladesh with East Asia and Southeast Asia. Regional tensions created constraints and pressures in these matters.
The keynote said that the existing trade, transit and connectivity were producing sub-optimal outcomes for Bangladesh. A two-pronged approach was required to increase trade and connectivity both bilaterally and multilaterally. Bangladesh’s economic future hinges largely on Asia and so there should be a strong drive to link the country physically with the world’s most dynamic regions, that is, East and Southeast Asia. There is political need for political consensus within Bangladesh to pursue the country’s strategic interests.
Speaking as chief guest at the seminar, Commerce Minister of Bangladesh Tofail Ahmed said Bangladesh had come a long way since its independence in the early seventies. It had been called a basket case by certain international quarters at the time, but now those same quarters were saying that the rise of Bangladesh was a miracle.
Political observer Manjur Ahmed Chowdhury said that talks on regional connectivity have been continuing over the last two years. Connectivity with India, Bhutan and Nepal had been projected as a huge leap forward in regional cooperation and development, but reality was different. Nepal was so dependent on India that it even used its currency to a certain extent. Only recently it exerted itself somewhat. Bhutan was virtually a vassal state of India. He said Bangladesh should not face the same fate. “We need connectivity with East Asian countries,” he said.
Barrister Rumeen Farhana of BNP said the preconditions to trade, connectivity and inclusive development was sincere friendly relations. That required equity and balance. She said India marred relations with border killings, barbed wire fencing, tariff barriers, the widening trade gap and the unilateral withdrawal of river waters.
She said Bangladesh failed to reap benefits from granting transit to India, though India itself had gained hugely. The Bangladesh government was giving facilities to India, asking nothing in return, not even receiving its rightful share of water.
She said that the multimodal transit was good on paper, not in practice. Nepal and Bangladesh couldn’t transport goods to each other because India did not permit use of its territory.
Former NBR Chairman Dr Muhammed Abdul Mazid spoke of the need for a Pan Asian Stock Exchange, pointing out that India had obstructed initiatives in that regard. He said that balanced development was required to improve trade relations.
Ambassador Munshi Faiz Ahmed, chairman of BIISS, said that Bangladesh was surrounded all side by India, but connectivity needed to go beyond India. OBOR was essential, but needed to have good relations with India and Myanmar as their territory was required to be part of the BRI initiative.
Veteran politician JSD leader ASM Abdur Rab said that it was imperative to have a deep-sea port, yet the Chinese offer in this regard had been rejected. This was unfortunate. A deep sea port was pivotal to economic development, trade and connectivity.
BNP leader and former minister Kamal Ibne Yusuf pointed out about transit that India would not pay the costs of investment in roads for heavy transport. He said the non-tariff barrier with India was a serious block. He said BCIM was a victim of Sino-Indian rivalry.
Dr Zafrullah Chowdhury, trustee of Gonoshasthya Kendra, said there was no point in having bad relations with the neighbour, but if they had threatening elements, then there was no point in opening doors to them either.
Chairing the seminar, CGS chairman and political scientist Prof. Ataur Rahman said that connectivity, trade and inclusive development were the key words emerging over the last decade and were tangible challenges for Bangladesh. The programme was moderated by noted TV anchor and Executive Director of CGS Zillur Rahman
News Courtesy: http://en.prothom-alo.com/bangladesh/news/156931/Political-consensus-imperative-for-regional