Analysis
Old and New Lessons From the Ukraine War
Two years ago, I outlined eight lessons from the Ukraine War. Though I warned that it was too early to be confident about any predictions, they…
Republished
What in The World is The ‘Global South’?
The term ‘global south’ is in constant use nowadays. For example, some commentators warn that Israel’s incursion into Gaza is ‘alienating the global south’, and we…
Republished
If Trump Returns
As the 2024 US presidential primary campaign season begins, the most likely final contest is a rematch between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Judging by…
Analysis
Is Nuclear War Inevitable?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and nuclear sabre rattling against the West have revived a debate about nuclear weapons. Last year, when a United Nations treaty to…
Republished
America’s China Challenge
At this year’s Aspen Security Forum (which I co-chair) in July, China’s ambassador to the United States, Qin Gang, appealed for better understanding of his country.…
Republished
Whatever Happened to Soft Power?
As 2021 drew to a close, Russia had massed troops near its border with Ukraine, China had flown military jets near Taiwan, North Korea was still…
Republished
Post-Pandemic Geopolitics
Estimating the long-term effect of the current pandemic is not an exact prediction of the future, but an exercise in weighing probabilities and adjusting current policies.…
Analysis
Is the Trump presidency a turning point in world politics?
As the United States enters the home stretch of the 2020 presidential election campaign, and with neither party’s nominating convention featuring much discussion of foreign policy,…