As the Pandemic deepens further with new variants, countries are faced with severe economic and social challenges. Globalization confronts critical setbacks with looming uncertainties on economic and social fronts. For developing countries in transition to higher levels of growth, the risks of recession are imminent with recurring budget deficits, slippages in trade and services sectors, severe losses in incomes and employment and trends towards increased poverty and inequalities.
Several countries are in the process of undertaking strategic paradigm shifts in respective national economic policies aiming at recovery and stabilization in the medium to long-term. The continued Covid impact also impedes potentials of multilateral and bilateral economic cooperation.In this article an Inclusive and Integrated Roadmap has been suggested for Bangladesh to combat the impact of the pandemic and move ahead with the growth trajectory. The proposed Roadmap outlines concrete policy interventions and programs to counter the effects of the pandemic.
Bangladesh has demonstrated significant economic resilience despite the surge of the virus. This is well reflected through increased export earnings and overseas remittances, and the remarkable progress in attainment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) goals and targets. However Covid 19 continues to pose severe constraints to development. Should this continue till the end of this year or beyond, developing and developed countries need to envision and plan "outside the box" to implement development programs based on restructured strategic perspectives for inclusive growth.
Keeping in view the critical challenges that may escalate as the pandemic continues, Bangladesh may consider a Comprehensive Roadmap that would be inclusive and integrated. The proposed Roadmap should incorporate Short Term and Medium-Term components to combat the critically adverse impact of the pandemic. This should also aim at undertaking focused policy thrusts and interventions with a view to overcoming disruptions and challenges to the country's economic and social progress.
The Roadmap will facilitate continued progress in key sectors and enable carrying forward the inclusive and sustainable growth trajectory, achieving the Eight Five Year Plan and Perspective Plan targets, and substantially addressing poverty and inequalities. The proposed Roadmap will aim at building- up on the initiatives the government has already been undertaking and chart a focused, integrated approach to overcome the losses in key sectors due to the prolonged pandemic.
The proposed Road Map should incorporate the following components:
(a) Moving ahead on the growth trajectory
The key objective of the Roadmap would be to ensure there are no disruptions or impediments in achieving the growth perspectives envisioned in the Eighth Five Year Plan, and reaching double-digit growth by the terminal year of the Ninth Five Year Plan.It is imperative to address key challenges that may impede performance of the current two drivers of growth – exports and overseas remittances. On a broader perspective, the Roadmap should aim at supporting Economic Diversification and enhanced competitiveness through stimulating additional sources of growth, strengthened focus on key macro indicators, a buoyant resource mobilisation strategy and substantially reducing poverty and inequalities.
(b) Ensuring better impact of Stimulus Packages and reaching out to the new poor and extreme poor
The key sectors of the economy that bear the potentials to sustained growth are faced with critical constraints as the pandemic lingers. The pandemic has aggravated poverty, deprivations and inequalities. In several countries. Sectors most severely affected include manufacturing, trade and services. Therefore the proposed Roadmap should focus on minimising poverty, and access of resources to those who are critically affected by the pandemic. The Government's Stimulus Packages to ease the impact of the pandemic have been working reasonably well.
The most recent Stimulus Package is well structured to check addition of new poor through recurring unemployment and loss of incomes, and reverse trends towards extreme poverty. Based on the experiences of the previous Stimulus packages, the Government could expect better results through well-coordinated mechanism for reaching the targeted beneficiaries. A broader range of recipients and beneficiaries of the Stimulus Packages from the categories of unemployed and new poor would result in more effective impact even in the short-run.
The Government may consider a series of Stimulus Packages (preferably four additional Stimulus Packages – one every six months, on average, during the span of next two years).The Stimulus Packages should be both be demand-driven and supply responsive, and thus facilitate extensive coverage to mitigate poverty, support livelihood of the extreme poor ,compensate for low wages and sharp reduction in seasonal employment. The Informal Sectors that has been most severely affected by the pandemic warrants special attention in the proposed Roadmap.
(c) Efficient and Optimal use of resources
The Government may consider utmost priority to those sectors that are worst affected by the pandemic. In this context, the core strategy would relate to efficient resource allocation and utilization, and reducing public expenditure to optimal levels. This will lessen current deficits and provide for additional resources to compensate for loss of employment and income erosion due to the pandemic.
While increasing tax-GDP ratio remains a priority for resource mobilisation, focus on efficiency of public expenditure should significantly relate to achieving more with limited resources on one hand, and on the other this would add leverages towards supporting pro-poor initiatives and strengtheing current social protection mechanisms. There is need to ensure minimum escalation of costs for key projects, productive returns for domestic and foreign investment, enhanced incentives for Small and Medium Enterprises (SME)s and broadened entrepreneurship.
Should these be prioritised in the Roadmap, it would be possible to bridge current budget deficits and stimulate efficient utilization of resouces that would continue to spur growth. Efficient and optimal use of resources would propel effective implementation of Annual Development Programs (ADP), improve disbursement and facilitate reallocation, realignment and restructuring of key projects and programs, if required, without additional expenditure and budget deficits.
(d) Efficiency in Public Expenditure (through Performance-based and Results-based approaches)
Efficiency in public expenditure can best be achieved through cost-effectiveness and cost rationalization. It is extremely important to take into account how efficiently resources are utilized. Given inadequacies in achieving Annual Development Program (ADP) targets ( average rate of implementation ranged from 45-65% in the past five years), it is essential to focus on better coordination between implementing agencies for improved implementation through efficient utilization of resources.
However, at these critical times of the pandemic, it is necessary to shift from 'business-as-usual' expenditure trends, curtail recurring expenditure, and avoid cost escalation. This will enable reallocating funds to sectors/areas that would effectively mitigate adverse impact of the pandemic. Implementing agencies often find it challenging to spend allocated resources.
In such cases, it may be necessary to revisit, restructure and strengthen implementation mechanisms, upgrade skills and competencies, and promote inter-agency collaboration. Upgraded Performance-based and Results-based approaches in Budget and ADP preparation and implementation would lead to better outcomes. These approaches will ensure sustained success in achieving objectives, strengthen monitoring and evaluation, and enable tracking performance trends and progress in implementation.
(e) Upgrading Safety Nets and Social Protection
Current Safety Nets and Social Protection mechanisms should further be broadened to ensure a Comprehensive "Welfare approach". Strengthening Safety Nets and Social Protection could add value to current anti-poverty interventions. The Roadmap may propose, at least for the next two years, that 50% of current Safety Nets and Protection programs, be exclusively marked only to minimise adverse impact of the pandemic. The Roadmap should also aim at enhancing the volume of Stimulus Packages to 8% – 10% of GDP, with sufficiently strong focus on addressing impoverishment, inequalities and deprivation due to the pandemic.
Overall, there is a need to facilitate access of the poor to emergency cash support and soft credit/short-term loans to the unemployed, new poor and extreme poor. To supplement and enhance overall scope and impact of the pro-poor interventions, Government may consider strengthening institutional approaches to integrate funds from Zakat, charitable donations and alternative sources of resources currently underutilized. The Roadmap proposes closer review of current protection mechanisms for further effectiveness.
(f) Thrust on Food Security and Rationing
The Government has been able to demonstrate significant success on food security, through relevant policy interventions. There is need for continued focus on Food Security with broader availability, easy access, sufficient storage and efficient distribution. To ensure people have easy and continued access to food and essential supplies, it is necessary to introduce Rationing of essential food items in Dhaka and the divisional headquarters within the current year. Proposed Rationing provisions may be extended to district and upa-zilas during the next financial year. The Rationing provisions may be implemented on pilot basis, for the next two years or till the pandemic eases.
(g) Strengthening CSR to support pro-poor programs
The proposed Roadmap suggests a Comprehensive Corporate Social Responsibility with a view to supporting and strengthening pro-poor programs in the Short to Medium Term. With the lead role of the Government, the Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI) and it's affiliated business and trade groups should finalize an elaborate and Comprehensive CSR to support low-income and jobless employees and workers. Bangladesh Bank could take the lead for a Consortium of financial institutions (from public and private sectors) to support the poor and unemployed. The Ministry of Social Welfare and NGO Affairs Bureau may consider coordinating with key NGOS and CSOs in finalizing and implementing Corporate Social Responsibility Action Plan (CSRAP), for broader impact and effectiveness.
(h) Promoting health infrastructure and healthcare benefits
There are concerns on the inadequate health infrastructure facilities that impedes health care and coverage For instance, several upazilas and districts are in critical need of adequate hospital beds, ICUs, and ambulances. The proposed Roadmap should chart a Program of Action to significantly enhance health infrastructure on a priority basis. The thrust on promoting health infrastructure and healthcare should incorporate four elements – (a) increased allocation and broader coverage (b) efficient utilization.(c) Strengthened health surveillance and monitoring (d) identify current constraints that impede utilization of health expenditure, and addressing these with priority and precision. In the current budget, the Government has reiterated commitment for overall improvement of the health sector. The proposed Roadmap emphasizes on significant thrust on urgent upgradation and expansion of health infrastructure. In the current circumstances, allocations for the health sector needs to be substantially increased to at least 15% to 20% of GDP for the next two to three years. A key priority would be to ensure easy access and continued availability of vaccines, mainly through local production, by the end of the current year.
(i) Public-Private Partnership for strengthening health infrastructure
With a view to ensuring steady flow of investments for further substantive improvements in the health sector and a focused thrust to promote health infrastructure, the proposed Roadmap should incorporate a well-coordinated Public-Private Partnership (PPP) approach and supportive programs. The conventional approach for PPPs in different countries was aimed at bridging resource gaps to meet massive infrastructure requirements. However keeping in view the pandemic perils and risks, there is adequate justification for PPPs in the health and related social development sectors. In Bangladesh, PPP approach bears potentials of efficiency, and could be a viable strategy to develop the health sector. The PPP model for the Health sector should incorporate blend of massive local and foreign investments, as well as funds from public and private sources. This could be relevant in easing pressure on government's budget resources, and enable mitigating constraints and enhancing capacities in the Health sector, in the medium to long-term.
(j) Compensating losses in Education and Skills expansion
As in several other countries, in Bangladesh, the Education sector has been critically affected due to the pandemic. As the pandemic lingers, the education sector is confronted with prolonged uncertainties of returning back to usual trend. The proposed Roadmap needs to chart a framework not would aim not only at fast-track recovery, but also compensating and making up for the losses in this sector since the beginning of the pandemic. Key components in the proposed Roadmap should include compensating for backlogs and slips in academic session and curriculum. The Roadmap may also envision how digitalization can further propel efficiency in study and research. In this context it would be useful to closely review how several other countries and institutions are working to recover slips and backlogs in this sector based on which best practices could be derived to carry this sector forward in the years ahead.
(k) Business Continuity Plan
The Roadmap should outline a Business Continuity Plan (BCP) based on which every sector should have Alternative Programs to carry on with usual business despite unforeseen risks and uncertainties. The BCP should include strategies and programs to deliver targeted outputs and achieve respective sector targets in the most efficient manner, despite being confronted with critical disruptions. If the Government may also consider having in place Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)s with the United Nations, key multilateral and bilateral Development Partners (DP)s and Regional Cooperation and Integration (RCI) frameworks on such BCP provisions, indicators and perspectives.
(l) Alignment with Regional and Global thrusts in combating pandemic
The United Nations and some of its affiliated agencies have undertaken policy interventions that aim at giving resources, technical and advisory support to member countries in facing the severe economic and social development-related challenges. Core areas for collaboration should be identified, for which bilateral and multilateral assistance could add value to respective country programs against Covid 19 impact.
On the regional perspective, South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) need to closely coordinate with Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) to review actions and programs undertaken to combat Covid 19,and implement best practices.
(m) Institutional structure and Stakeholder engagement for implementing Roadmap
Further to the work currently undertaken, for focused guidance, strengthened monitoring and oversight, the Roadmap proposes the following: (a) A Cabinet Committee ( that would include Ministers for Health, Foreign Affairs, Finance and Social Welfare) (b) The Parliamentary Standing Committees for the above-stated ministries could be integrated to form the Parliamentary Standing Committee for Anti-Pandemic Programs and Perspectives).These committees would review and monitor the work of the Technical Committee, and give necessary guidance and instructions.
There is need to have Citizens Consultative Committees for every Ministry, to work closely with the Government on the following core requirements at this stage – (a) food security and access to essential commodities (b) monitor cash assistance on monthly basis to individuals/families without jobs or incomes, and all those affected by the pandemic.(c) enabling shifts/transfers of occupations and small trades.(d) giving support to group entrepreneurship in informal sectors that would stimulate rural economy. Local elected representatives, and professional groups and NGOs/CSOs should be included in these citizens committees.
(n) Approach, Indicators and Output Assessment
The Roadmap further recommends compliance with the core strategy and perspectives of the Eight Five Year Plan and the Perspective Plan. The Roadmap Framework is based on a simple Input-Output Model (that would reflect expected output/outcomes from specific, targeted interventions). Key Result Areas (KRA)s for areas/programs (that are assessable, measureable and monitorable) should be duly reflected.
The Roadmap should also include Design Monitoring and Assessment Framework (DMAF) – that would include incorporate indicators to identify core issues and challenges, offer fast-track, inclusive and sustainable solutions to extend effective policy support to the Government's programs and interventions in combating the pandemic impact.
4. Concluding observations
Short, medium and long-term interventions in combating Covid 19 related economic and social challenges is critically important to retain the current development momentum and carry forward significant economic progress the country has achieved. The proposed Inclusive and Integrated Roadmap to combat Covid challenges will identify and ease constraints, challenges and impediments, and facilitate implementing effective policy recommendations and solutions.
The pandemic has brought in severe shocks the adverse impact of which may linger longer than expected. Keeping these factors in view, the policy-driven, strategy-focused, well-coordinated and operationally implementable Roadmap (that would be inclusive and integrated to national development perspectives) could not only cushion the pandemic-related shocks, but also effectively support Bangladesh's smooth and continued transition to Middle-Income and Developed Country status within stipulated time frames.
Dr. Mohammed Parvez Imdad is a senior economist, governance specialist and policy analyst. He served as national and international civil servant for several years. Dr. Mohammed Parvez Imdad is also the member of Advisory Board at Centre for Governance Studies (CGS).
This article was originally published on The Asian Age.
Views in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect CGS policy.
