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Vladimir Putin secured the right to a fifth and sixth presidential term. But in four years everything can change
Peter Mironenko
Vladimir Putin approved an amendment to the Constitution to nullify his presidential term, and secured the right to lead Russia until 2036. The last time one person ruled our country for so long in the 16th century. Political scientists have no doubt that on April 22 the authorities will successfully vote for the amendments, and the stock market was so doubtful of such an outcome that he almost did not notice it. But until 2024, there are still four years left, and Vladimir Putin’s rating breaks through new lows even after new trillion social promises.
How it was
The introduction of the most important amendment to the Constitution was arranged in the usual manner as a special operation with distracting maneuvers – or maybe the deputies were simply trying to guess which amendments Vladimir Putin would choose. The State Duma began to consider the constitutional bill in the second reading – this is the last opportunity to introduce new amendments to it. It turned out that the deputies have two proposals, the fate of which could not be decided without Putin.
The first, on the postponement of the elections to the State Duma for 2020, was introduced by Vladimir Zhirinovsky, and then supported by the United Russia veteran, Olympic wrestling champion Alexander Karelin. The second, about the abolition of the limit on the number of presidential terms or at least zeroing the number of terms personally for Vladimir Putin, is Valentin Tereshkov, who was still in the Soviet Union in the Supreme Council from 1966 to 1989, and since 2011 she has been sitting in the State Duma. “Why twist and be wise?” – the first female astronaut motivated her proposals.
Less than an hour and a half later, as Vladimir Putin, whom the speaker Vyacheslav Volodin called, personally arrived in the Duma and delivered a 20-minute speech about the difficult international and economic situation (here’s a video , and here’s a transcript ), in the final of which he said that early elections they don’t need the Duma, restrictions on the presidential terms cannot be removed from the Constitution – but Putin himself can be allowed to be elected two more times if the Constitutional Court allows.
What will happen next
Today, the State Duma adopted the law on amendments to the Constitution in the second reading, and on Wednesday, March 11, it will approve in the formal third. After that, 2/3 of the members of the Federation Council must approve it, and then at least 2/3 of the regional legislative assemblies. On April 22, a nationwide vote will be held, at which citizens will be asked to approve all amendments in a single package.
The coronavirus will help the authorities protect themselves from protests against the new terms of Vladimir Putin – with reference to him, the Moscow government has already banned for a month all mass events for more than 5,000 participants.
If Putin takes full advantage of his new opportunities, he will be able to lead Russia until 2036. In the last 450 years, Russian rulers did not have such terms. Only Ivan III (in the 15th century) and his grandson Ivan IV the Terrible (in the 16th century) ruled the country longer.
What kind of power will Putin get
If the Constitutional Court takes the necessary decision, and amendments to the Constitution are approved by popular vote on April 22 (no one doubts either), the new president will receive even more power in 2024 than Vladimir Putin now has.
The Bell, even at the stage of publishing the first version of the amendments, when everyone was discussing the expansion of the powers of the State Duma and the transfer of Vladimir Putin to the State Council, noted : the new Constitution only increases the already great presidential power.
• The only restriction for the president described in the amendments is a ban on rejecting the candidatures of ministers already approved by the State Duma. It will not play a real role – because the president is still making the candidacy of the prime minister, who is proposing to the Duma of Ministers.
• But the president gets an additional veto when signing bills (the opportunity to send the draft before signing to the Constitutional Court, which may allow the president not to sign it), the right, with the consent of the Federation Council, to dismiss the Constitutional Court judges, whose number is reduced from 19 to 11, the right to form the State Council, whose new authority has not yet been described, and the right to exercise (whatever that means) “general government leadership”.
• The President will not only retain the main lever of pressure on parliament – the right to dissolve the Duma if it does not approve the prime minister’s candidacy three times — but it will also receive a new reason for its dissolution: if the Duma does not approve more than a third of the candidates for ministers and deputy prime ministers.
Talk about it
All political analysts interviewed by The Bell have no doubt that the amendments will successfully pass through a popular vote. “Tereshkova’s amendment” may even help in this procedure – now the opposition will vote against it, and this will increase turnout, said Dmitry Badovsky, director of the Institute for Social, Economic and Political Studies, a former employee of the presidential administration.
• The process of drafting amendments to the Constitution looked like throwing: first, Putin built a system for the successor, removing the clause “in a row” and transferring powers to other institutions, then he sharply made the presidential power even stronger, and today he has reset his terms, political analyst Alexander Kynev said. It seems that, having sorted through all the successors, Putin chose himself, because he simply did not find other suitable figures, he suggests.
• But now it’s clear why the Kremlin needed a legally unnecessary popular vote — allowing Putin to be elected for the fifth and sixth terms needs legitimization.
How did the market react?
Almost nothing. Immediately after Putin’s speech, the Mosbirzi index, which has been in a deep fall all day, jumped 1.8%, but this effect lasted no more than half an hour. The ruble of speech did not notice at all. “The fact that Vladimir Vladimirovich will remain president did not come as a surprise to anyone on the market,” the chief analyst of a large investment company diplomatically told The Bell.
What to me from this
The prospect that opens before Russia – another 16 years of the irremovability of power – may plunge many into gloom. Recall that it was after Vladimir Putin, in 2011, the last time decided to stay in power longer, the annual emigration began to exceed the highest rates in the early 2000s.
But all the events of recent months – from the coronavirus epidemic to the failure of the OPEC + deal and the collapse of the ruble – show us that unexpected factors can intervene in the most serious way.
The positions of the Russian authorities are not at all as reinforced concrete as they seem. Despite the trillions of social promises , Vladimir Putin’s rating fell to another historic low in February – 29%, although even in the summer of 2018, at the peak of the outrage of the pension reform, it did not fall below 35%. The consequences unleashed by the oil market price war the Kremlin yet difficult to estimate – but the fall in oil prices can not affect the real disposable income, which has only just begun to grow. It is still unclear how the government will respond to this new problem – but experts suggest that a new tightening of tax policy could be the solution.
The Kremlin is aware of all these risks. “It will only get worse, in 2021 it will be very difficult to secure a pro-Putin majority, ” a person close to the leadership of the AP political bloc told Meduza today, commenting on the failed transfer of elections to the Duma. Vladimir Putin today secured the right, but not the obligation, to spend two more terms in the Kremlin. There are four more years left until 2024, and during this time everything can change.
Petr Mironenko, Editor, The Bell
The article was originally published on The Bell.
Views in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect CGS policy.
