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The “Unwinnable War”
Last week, the UN secretary-general António Guterres said that the Ukraine war is “…. unwinnable.” However, the sad part is that there does not seem to be no letup in the war, not yet.
In the meantime, Russia’s relentless bombing has reduced Ukraine into a pile of rubbles and turned Europe’s biggest country into a non-functioning state!
On the other hand, Russia’s initial expectations that Ukraine would be cowed by the show of its military might has not quite worked. Indeed, thanks to US/NATO’s generous arming of the Ukrainian resistance forces and the stiff resistance the Russians encountered from the Ukrainians, Russia’s accomplishments in the battlefield seem to be less than what they hoped for.
Furthermore, harsh EU/US sanctions have significantly reduced Russia’s capacity to sustain the war, and should this war prolong, Putin’s own survival may be in question though it is also true that Russia’s capacity to continue the war far outmatches Ukraine’s capacity – notwithstanding generous NATO arms supply – to sustain the resistance.
Either way, there is no alternative to cessation of violence and promotion of lasting peace.
The good news is that there are signs that both sides are exhausted and are ready to talk[1].
While the quest for peace in Ukraine proceeds, it may be worth noting several interesting behaviour and developments that are taking place outside Ukraine, in the larger world. These shifts and changes are important and have ramifications for the future of peace, not just in Ukraine but in the world.
The War Mongering Media
Among many shifts and changes that the Ukraine has revealed since, a rather disturbing aspect is media and its bias in reporting. It seems that the media, especially the media in the West have turned themselves into a propaganda machine of the NATO/US, hyping the war at an incredibly disturbing level!
From the very onset of this war, the media especially those in the US and UK have been filling the TV screens and print pages with images and news much of which have proven to be fake, and their analyses distorted. In the process, they have made the atmosphere so toxic that their virulent anti-Russia/Anti-Putin rhetoric alarmed the Pentagon to the extent that they had to take urgent steps to warn Biden Administration of the danger of these “unrelenting” and “reckless” tirades that the Pentagon feared may push US/NATO into a war with Russia and by extension, plunge the world into the third world war.[2]
It is sad to see how low the media has stooped these days. Indeed, it is ironical that until now the norm used to be that people would lie, and media would unmask their lies. Ukraine war seems to have put the theory upside down – these days and as far as the Ukraine war is concerned, the media lies, and people try and unmask their lies. This is unfortunate and dangerous.
Shifts in International Relations
Ukraine war has also revealed several noticeable shifts at global level and it is important to understand and appreciate these shifts to help contextualise the emerging world order, international mood, and the options or otherwise of peace, better.
For example, at the March 2, 2022 UN General Assembly Special Session on Ukraine, while NATO/US and their allies voted ‘Yes’ and condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and endorsed the Ukraine Resolution, several major Asian (China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran for example), African (Kenya, Nigeria etc.) and Latin American (Venezuela, Nicaragua etc.) countries who are either current and/or recent victims of West’s illegal wars, and sufferers of their punitive actions have been less enthusiastic in supporting the Ukraine Resolution and voted either ‘No’ or ‘Abstained’, conveying in the wake, their mixed feelings towards West’s “outrage” at Russia, as “hypocritical” and West’s “…recourse to the UN, a matter of expedience not principle.”[3]
Furthermore, through their No/Abstained voting these countries may have also delivered another important message, something that Nelson Mandela once alluded to, which is that “Why should America’s enemy be my enemy?”
Another interesting aspect of shift is the pattern involving Mr. Zelensky’s recent zoom speeches at different parliaments of the world. It is evident that countries that invited him include mainly the US/NATO conglomerate and their hegemonic allies and that the countries that did not invite Mr. Zelensky to address their parliaments are outside the US/NATO hegemonic nexus and together, they constitute more than two/third of the world population.
Revelation of these shifts and changes, a gift of the Ukraine War, at the international level, indicate that the post post-colonial and post WWII Anglo/Saxon Hegemonic world order is changing, and is transiting from a unipolar to a multipolar world where there are now multiple sub-systems that countries can tap on and benefit from. As a result, it is also obvious that the US/NATO sanctions on Russia are proving to be not as potent as these once used to be.
Again, thanks to the sanctions imposed by the US/NATO and the economic hardship these sanctions are causing right across the board indicate that in a globalized market-economic system, sanction-induced punitive actions that contribute to market disruptions affect everyone, implying that in an economically integrated world order, sanctions are somewhat of a lose-lose tool.
These lessons in evolving international relations and changing moods reveal several hard truths – that people are tired of taking sides; that in the emerging multipolar world people have choices; and that these days people are less intimidated by the Anglo-Saxon supremacist bullying; and finally, that in a globalized world, sanctions disrupt market and harm all.
These developments are also signs that time is ripe to abandon old mindsets of exceptionalism and seek newer and fairer ways to organize the world.
However, the immediate task is stop violence and bring peace not just in Ukraine but in the world as a whole. The question is, how?
Cessation of violence in Ukraine
Among other things, an amicable settlement of the Ukraine crisis must consider three interconnecting factors – firstly and more broadly, the terms that satisfy both Russians and the Ukrainians; and secondly, the negotiating parameters that NATO/US – Ukraine’s external guardians – allow Ukraine to play with; and finally, and this is key, NATO/US treatment of Russia and Putin.
Given Europe’s/US’ dismal track record in honouring promises, in this case, their promise of NATO’s eastward non-expansion which has since been flouted, Russia especially Mr. Putin has every reason not to trust neither Europe nor US and his insistence is on written commitment and no verbal promises.
Furthermore, Russians also believe and with justification that instead of treating Russia as an ‘equal partner’ in international affairs, the West especially the US has ignored Russia’s concerns and treated Russia with disdain and at times, patronisingly. Over the years such disparaging behaviour has deepened distrust and hurt Russia’s pride, fomenting nationalism that has produced ultra-nationalist and ultra-assertive leaders such as Putin has also bred distrust.
Therefore, Ukraine peace talks must do their utmost to build trust with Russia and treat Russia with respect and more importantly, and regardless of how much they hate Putin, engage the Russian leader with dignity, deserving of a head of state. More importantly, US/NATO must make sure to avoid guffaws such as the one made – consciously or otherwise- by the US President Biden in Poland recently who recently in Poland in a speech, departed from his pre-prepared script and dropped this unscripted bombshell that “…this man [Putin] cannot remain in power.”
This nearly terminated prospects of all peace negotiations. Thankfully, the White House officials were quick to “…assure the world that Biden didn’t mean what he said” and that “….we do not have a strategy of regime change in Russia or anywhere else, for that matter.”[4]
Make no mistake that in any peace negotiation treating Russia and Putin disrespectfully and disparagingly is a no-go area and thus, peace negotiations must address Russia’s concerns sensitively and treat Russia’s leader Putin, with dignity and diligence.
Ukrainian President Mr. Zelensky’s recent statement that he is willing to “compromise” meaning that he is ready to accommodate Russia’s concerns in a peace deal is a welcome sign.[5] Hopefully, his external backers, NATO/US, pay heed to Mr. Zelensky’s accommodating intents.
For Enduring Peace, “Beyond the fight, lies the greater fight
Sometime, out of a gloom, comes a glimmer of hope. In some way, Ukraine war may have helped us to dig deep and see things clearer especially the evolving global dynamics which should help to approach the agenda of peace and work for a better world, somewhat more pragmatically!
Thus, time is ripe for the world and most importantly, for the Europeans who always seem to get hooked into illegal wars, to gaze beyond Ukraine and work out and agree on provisions that help preventing all such wars in future.
It is rather fortuitous that the first phase of the Ukraine peace talks had taken place in Istanbul, Turkey where the Ottoman Sultans -Turkish kings – would often say that “Beyond the fight, lies the greater fight — the struggle to build an enduring peace.”[6]
Istanbul peace talks have indeed offered the unique opportunity to go beyond Ukraine and fight the “greater fight” and suggest policies and institutional arrangements that prevent illegal wars and promote a rule-based global governance architecture, that ensures “enduring peace” in the coming days
M. Adil Khan is a former senior policy manager of the United Nations.
NOTE: The article is an amended version of the original published in countercurrents.org
[1] The latest news is that Ukraine and Russia have meet and discussing peace in Istanbul, Turkey
[2] https://www.globalresearch.ca/pentagon-drops-truth-bombs-stave-off-war-russia/5775427
[3] https://www.ft.com/content/567107fa-2760-452b-8452-e656ca5ca478?shareType=nongift&fbclid=IwAR1A1Z-gEbIONBhlJlwd357MEk9F-8arEDDy7A_GRYQUVIr0nlFhLhRYJSo
[4] https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian-war/1011817/america-cant-afford-to-be-careless-in-the-war-of-words-against-russia?utm_campaign=afternoon_newsletter_20220328&utm_source=afternoon_newsletter&utm_medium=email&refid=0821081922A579CBDAC7D7022EB28CD4
[5] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-latest-putin-zelensky-talks-today-b2045412.html
[6] Excerpted from: https://www.ft.com/content/567107fa-2760-452b-8452-e656ca5ca478?shareType=nongift&fbclid=IwAR1A1Z-gEbIONBhlJlwd357MEk9F-8arEDDy7A_GRYQUVIr0nlFhLhRYJSo
