Douglas Schoen
Democrats appear better positioned to win big in the 2020 election than ever before. The marked national polling lead Joe Biden over Donald Trump and the declining job approval rating of the president point to the potential for a landslide White House victory for the Democrats, as well as competitive races for Congress.
Indeed, Biden maintains a national lead of nine points over Trump, according to the Real Clear Politics average, while the job approval rating of the president has fallen six points to its lowest level in almost two years. The waning job approval rating and rapidly declining polling position of Trump are already having a negative impact on Republican candidates in several races down the ballot.
If Trump loses badly in November, which is entirely possible at this point, we can expect his loss to cascade to Republican candidates in competitive House and Senate races. Given that Democrats have framed the election as a referendum on Trump, his poor position presents an opportunity for Democrats to not only beat the president, but also to maintain control of the House and possibly take back the Senate.
In several Senate races, Democratic challengers are favored to win over Republican incumbents, signaling an opportunity for Democrats to flip several Republican seats. Further, only one Democratic seat, Alabama, is a likely pickup for Republicans, while there are around five seats that Democrats have a chance to win in Maine, Arizona, Montana, Colorado, and North Carolina.
This is especially the case in Arizona, where coronavirus cases are skyrocketing and hospitals have nearly reached capacity. Trump trails Biden by seven points in Arizona, according to a New York Times survey, despite the fact that Trump won the state by four points in 2016. In the Senate race, incumbent Republican Martha McSally has fallen behind her Democratic challenger Mark Kelly by seven points.
In North Carolina, Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham, a former state senator and lieutenant colonel in the Army Reserve, is ahead of Republican incumbent Thom Tillis by nearly ten points, according to a survey by Public Policy Polling. In Montana, former Democratic Governor Steve Bullock leads incumbent Republican Senator Steve Daines by four points, according to a survey by the University of Montana.
Democrats also have a significant edge in House races. They hold a national generic ballot lead of eight points, with 50 percent of voters saying they would support the Democratic candidate in their district and 42 percent of voters saying they would support the Republican candidate, according to a survey by Monmouth University.
Given their current advantage, if the election were held today, it is likely that Democrats would win the White House and the Senate, while also maintaining control of the House. However, we are still several months away from Election Day, and it is entirely possible that circumstances could change. To be sure, both parties have risk factors. Democrats could move even further to the left or be positioned that way by this fall.
It is apparent, given the results of primary elections, that the party has moved further to the left. If this is reflected in the mainstream policies of Democrats, it could result in their advantage shrinking. This is especially true if the party starts to embrace progressive policies that are unpopular with most voters, such as defunding the police. Democrats must find a way to unite progressives and moderates around a broader message of unity and an inclusive agenda that can bring the country together.
For Republicans, it is clear that Trump is putting the party in danger of a substantive loss in November. But if Trump can develop a message of unity and make this election a choice between him and Biden rather than a referendum on his performance, the race could get much closer. Indeed, Biden only leads by six points in swing states, despite Trump having an absolutely horrible streak last month.
It is clear that Trump faces an uphill battle to win a second term, and Democrats appear poised to win big if they stay away from moving further to the left. Finally, a substantial victory for Biden would severely hurt Republican candidates in races down the ballot and may result in a considerable across the board Republican defeat.
Douglas Schoen is a consultant who served as an adviser to President Bill Clinton and to the campaign of Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
This article was originally published on The Hill.
Views in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect CGS policy.
