Chayanika Saxena
The signing of the withdrawal deal between the US and Taliban has been a watershed moment in the long-drawn war in Afghanistan. While the violence continues and the Taliban is insistent on waging a jihad against the Afghan government, the infra-Afghan dialogue is all but in a state of disarray. To be more precise, this dialogue has not even taken off the ground yet and it seems that it may remain so for the foreseeable future. There are two reasons for this. On the one hand, the COVID pandemic has shifted the global focus away from more provincial concerns, such as the peace process in Afghanistan. On the other, the domestic political situation in Afghanistan is far from being conducive to begin the elusive discussions on the restoration of peace. Yet despite the available evidence of an ongoing impasse, there still remains a ring of inevitability to the peace process; a sentiment that was also reflected in the US Special Representative for Afghan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilizad’s recent visit to different stakeholder-nations, including India.
As one of the primary stakeholders in the post-war redevelopment of Afghanistan since 2001, India has played a credible role in assisting this country to become an effective democracy. To this extent, India has contributed USD 3 billion in aid to Afghanistan, making it the largest donor in South Asia and the fifth largest in the world. Additionally, India is helping Afghanistan in resurrecting its economic and political infrastructure by engaging in mega development projects, such as the building of the Salma Dam in Herat province and the National Assembly or the Afghan Parliament in Kabul, to name a few. This is besides the rolling assistance India continues to provide for human resource development of Afghans through scholarships and training.
The softer outreach of India to Afghanistan, conversely, has involved a conscious decision to keep the Indian boots off the ground there. The Indian reluctance to participate militarily in Afghanistan stems from certain self-imposed and structural constraints. Mindful of its lack of actual, physical border with Afghanistan, India understands the limitations that lack of geographical contiguity imposes on the Indian ability to access the Afghan space. Its dependence for access on other countries, including a truant Pakistan, precludes the possibility of India maintaining an effective and formal military presence in Afghanistan. The other structural constraint is imposed by the regional dynamics, which since 2001, have been predisposed in favour of Pakistan courtesy the US. Rebuffing the Indian offer of help at the time of its invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, the US made Pakistan their so-called “frontline ally” in the war on terror. As a result, India has often found itself on the fringes of different international and regional initiatives on Afghanistan. Moreover, the reasonable belief of India in bilateralism as well as its reluctance to “export” its democratic model has ensured that it nurtures its ties with Afghanistan on the premise of mutual respect and minimum interference.
The consequences of this distant participant approach have been mixed. On the one hand, it has reaped substantial cultural and political benefits for India. According to a survey by Gallup, India’s acceptance rate amongst Afghans is the highest, which is a plus point considering the general hostility that their counterpart, Pakistan, receives from the Afghan masses. On the flip side, however, the limits to the Indian outreach have repeatedly subjected India to strategic neglect.
From being chided by the President of the US Donald Trump, to being kept out of international consultations such as the recently-held “regional” discussions at the UN, the apparent indifference to the Indian role in Afghanistan is certainly a source of concern. This disconcerting development not only pushes the unparalleled Indian largesse to Afghanistan behind the oblivion, but it can also harm India’s national interests as they are often sidelined to the benefit, and even glee, of Pakistan. Therefore, as Afghanistan inches towards the Intra-Afghan dialogue, and subsequently the peace process, it is vital for India to be involved more boldly and deeply in Afghanistan to ensure that its emerging political landscape is familiar and friendly to it.
Chayanika Saxena is a President’s Graduate Fellow and PhD candidate at the Department of Geography, National University of Singapore. She tweets at @mobilemigrant
Views in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect CGS policy.
